MTH451 Introduction to Probability and Statistics
University of Rhode Island
Spring 2017
Instructor: Mark Comerford
Office: Lippitt Hall 102F
Tel: 874 5984
Email: mcomerford@math.uri.edu
Class Schedule: TuTh 12.30pm1.45pm,
Pastore Hall 122
Office hours: Monday 1 2pm, Wed 10am  12pm, and by appointment
Textbook:
I. Miller, M. Miller, John E. Freund's Mathematical Statistics
with Applications, Eighth Edition, Pearson Prentice Hall,
ISBN 9780321807090
Prerequisite:
MTH 243 (Multivariable Calculus) or equivalent.
Description:
MTH 451 is an introduction to the mathematical theory of probability using calculus.
Probability theory has a tremendous variety of applications in all the sciences, including
the social sciences, business and economics, and provides the mathematical foundation for statistics.
It uses a wide variety of mathematical techniques and concepts, especially elementary set theory,
combinatorics, and calculus. A main goal of this course is that you will be able to read
more advanced material on probability and its applications and go on
to courses in mathematical statistics and stochastic processes.
The class is designed for an audience with quite diverse interests, for example:
If you are an engineering, science, economics or business major, probability will be a basic part of your mathematical toolkit;
If you are a secondary math education major, you will most likely need to take the Praxis content exam, which contains material on discrete mathematics and probability for which this course is great preparation;
If you are interested in taking the actuarial exams, this course is absolutely fundamental. We will discuss problems similar to problems on the actuarial exams during the course. For information about careers in actuarial science see careers in actuarial science;
actuarial exams.
Finally, probability theory is a fundamental discipline in mathematics itself and well as the foundation for all of statistics. It can be entertaining, enlightening and sometimes surprising.
Syllabus and Homework Problems: Clicking on the section in the table below will bring up the scanned notes for that section.
Reading 
Problems 
Chapter 1  Combinatorics 
7th Ed. 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, 1.8, 1.14, 1.25, 1.26, 1.27
8th Ed. 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, 1.8, 1.14, 1.24, 1.26, 1,27 
2.1 Introduction 

2.2 Sample Spaces 

2.3 Events 
7th Ed. 2.2, 2.3, 2.4
8th Ed. 2.2, 2.4, 2.3 
2.4 The Probability of an Event 

2.5 Some Rules of Probability 
7th Ed. 2.5, 2.8, 2.9, 2.11, 2.12, 2.14, 2.15
8th Ed. 2.5, 2.8, 2.9, 2.11, 2.12, 2.14, 2.15 
2.6 Conditional Probability 

2.7 Indpendence 
7th Ed. 2.17, 2.18, 2.19, 2.22, 2.102
8th Ed. 2.17, 2.18, 2.19, 2.22, 2.102 
2.8 Bayes' Theorem 
7th Ed. 2.106, 2.109, 2.111
8th Ed. 2.106, 2.110, 2.111 
3.1 Discrete Random Variables 

3.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 
7th Ed. 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.8, 3.11, 3.13, 3.15
8th Ed. 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.8, 3.12, 3.13, 3.15 
3.3 Continuous Random Variables 

3.4 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables 
7th Ed. 3.18, 3.19, 3.22, 3.23, 3.32, 3.33, 3.41
8th Ed. 3.19, 3.18, 3.22, 3.23, 3.32, 3.33, 3.41 
3.5 I Multivariate Distributions 
7th Ed. 3.42, 3.43, 3.44, 3.45, 3.46, 3.47
8th Ed. 3.42, 3.43, 3.44, 3.45, 3.46, 3.47 
3.5 II Multivariate Densities 
7th Ed. 3.49, 3.51, 3.52, 3.54, 3.65
8th Ed. 3.49, 3.51, 3.52, 3.54, 3.65 
3.6 Marginal Distributions 

3.7 Conditional Distributions 
7th Ed. 3.69, 3.71, 3.73, 3.76
8th Ed. 3.69, 3.71, 3.73, 3.76 
4.1, 4.2 Mathematical Expectation 
7th Ed. 4.1, 4.7, 4.9
8th Ed. 4.1, 4.7, 4.9 
4.3 Moments 

4.4 Markov's and Chebyshev's Inequalities 
7th Ed. 4.17, 4.19, 4.23
8th Ed. 4.17, 4.19, 4.23 
4.5 Moment Generating Functions 
7th Ed. 4.33, 4.34, 4.35, 4.37
8th Ed. 4.34, 4.33, 4.35, 4.37 
4.6 Product Moments 
7th Ed. 4.41, 4.45, 4.46
8th Ed. 4.42, 4.46, 4.47 
4.7 Moments of Linear Combinations of Random Variables 
7th Ed. 4.48, 4.49, 4.50, 4.53
8th Ed. 4.49, 4.50, 4.51, 4.54 
4.8 Conditional Expectations 
7th Ed. 4.55, 4.56, 4.57
8th Ed. 4.56, 4.57, 4.58

5 Special Probability Distributions 
7th Ed. 5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 5.20, 5.21, 5.23, 5.33
8th Ed. 5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 5.20, 5.21, 5.23, 5.33 
6.16.4 Special Probability Densities 
7th Ed. 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.15, 6.16
8th Ed. 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.15, 6.16 
6.5 The Normal Distribution 
7th Ed. 6.31, 6.37
8th Ed. 6.31, 6.37 
7 The Weak Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem 

Important dates:
Exam 1:
Tuesday March 6, in class.
Exam 2:
Tuesday April 4, in class.
Final Exam:
Thursday May 4, 11:30am  2:30pm Pastore 122
Spring 2017 final exam schedule
Final Grade Calculation:
A 95  100, A 90  95, B+ 87  90, B 83  87, B 80  83, C+ 77  80, C 73  77, C 70  73, D+ 67  70, D 60  67, F < 60.
Evaluation:
Your grade will be based on quizzes, two inclass exams, and a final.
We will have biweekly quizzes.
The quizzes will be based on the material covered in class and suggested problems which will not be
collected. (Special assignments, which might include use of Maple,
will be collected.) Quizzes cannot be made up, but your lowest
quiz grade will be dropped. Makeup exams will be given only for
serious illness or emergency, and these must be documented.
Exams will draw from material covered in class, that is,
any theorem, proof, or example that we cover in class and any suggested problem
is a possible material for the tests.
There will be two inclass exams and a comprehensive final.
Dates see above.
Grading:
Your grade will be based on your exam scores, final exam score,
quiz grades.
quizzes and assignments 25%
inclass exams 20% each
final 35%
Remarks:
1.
Work on the suggested problems and keep the solutions.
In fact, challenging and varied problems are an essential part of the course. Review concepts and methods from calculus as needed. Find a study partner.
2. Read the book carefully.
It is helpful to read sections before we talk
about them in class.
3.
Attend class to keep current, ask questions, and learn new topics.
Also, attending class allows you to see what is emphasized.
4.
Review and application of calculus concepts : An explicit learning goal of this course is to strengthen your facility with calculus, including integration techniques, multiple integrals, the fundamental theorem of calculus, and series. You should be prepared to consult your old calculus textbook when needed. You are encouraged to use Mathematica or something equivalent for homework problems as a way to check your calculus computations.
Moreover, some exam questions will be specifically designed to test your skill in using and applying calculus ideas and methods.
Accommodations:
Students who require accommodations and who have
documentation from Disability Services (8742098)
should make arrangements with me as soon as possible.
