Modeling Project 3 MTH 142 Fall 2001
Department of Mathematics, University of Rhode Island
Consider the following population data (in millions)
that was collected during a period of several years, beginning
in 1970 () and ending in 2000 ()
14.99295, 14.62998, 14.28663, 13.95963, 13.64571, 13.34487, 13.05384, 12.77589,
12.50775, 12.24942, 11.99763, 11.75565, 11.52021, 11.29131, 11.07222, 10.85640,
10.64712, 10.44111, 10.24491, 10.04871, 9.85905, 9.67266, 9.48954, 9.31296,
9.13638, 8.96307, 8.79630, 8.62953, 8.46603, 8.30253, 8.14230
Write a report that has the following parts.
- Title, Author, Date, Course and Section, Instructor.
- Calculate numerical estimates of
for =1, 6, 11, 16, 21, 26. For this, use the approximation
- Plot of
(vertical axis) versus (horizontal axis)
for the points you have information on (see previous question)
- Use either trial and error or the Maple fit
command to fit a polynomial curve
to the points in the previous question by
choosing suitable values of the parameters , , and .
Plot together the points and the curve that you have chosen,
so that it can be verified (visually) that you have a ``reasonable fit''.
- The differential equation
is satisfied approximately by the population as a function of time .
- Use algebra and Maple to determine if there exist equilibrium values of .
Verify your answer by producing a slope field plot with
Comment on whether the plot confirms or not
your conclusion on equilibrium values.
- Generate a slope field plot with
What does the model predict
the population will be in the year 2030?
What will be the population in the year 2060?
Tips, comments, and additional information
- To plot points load first the package plots.
In this example, points and a curve are
p2 := plot(x^2,x=0..2):
To use differential equations related commands in Maple
you must first load the package DEtools.
Here is an example of how one plots in Maple
a direction field and a solution of the logistic differential equation
. Note the :
de1 := diff(x(t),t) = 3*x(t)*(1-x(t)/300);
Here is how to plot the slope field and a particular solution:
Maple can solve some differential equations, for example:
- The final project should have only one author.
You may discuss the project with your classmates,
but what you turn in should contain your own original designs.
- Before each calculation, describe in English what you are about
- Use the electronic submission system to turn in your work.
- Maple should be used in all calculations and plots.
- For basic information on
Plotting, solving equations and calculating integrals
in Maple: see the Maple worksheet
`` Introduction to Maple in Calculus II''(intro142.mws) ,
located in www.math.uri.edu/Center/
- MAPLE HELP is be available.
The schedule and location is announced in www.math.uri.edu.